The effect of climate change and drought on Aleppo pine(Pinus halepensis Mill.) forests in the Geopark M’Goun, High Atlas of Morocco

Aboubakre Outourakhte¹ , Youssef Gharnit¹ , Abdelaziz Moujane¹ , Khalid El Haddany² , AzizHasib¹ , Abdelali Boulli¹

¹Laboratory for Environmental, Ecological, and Agrindustrial Engineering, University Sultan Moulay Sliman, Faculty of Science and Technology Beni Mellal, Morocco.

²Research Team, Regional Management and Territorial Development, Cadi Ayyad University, Faculty of Letters and Human Sciences, Marrakech

Corresponding Author Email: outourakhtebakre1991@gmail.com

DOI : https://doi.org/10.51470/ABP.2026.05.02.31

Abstract

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1. Introduction

Droughts are a prevalent weather-related natural hazard affecting environment across nearly all climate zones, differing in their frequency, severity, and duration[1][4]. Climate change has become increasingly severe, threatening ecosystem stability and, in particular, biodiversity[5]. The effect of climate change on vegetation is expected due to changes in the temperature, rainfall[6]. Climate change is accelerating [7] under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors [8]. In addition, the natural, social and climate systems havestrong interactions with human-induced climate change [9]. These changes in climate have severe and major negative consequences, especially on our societies and environment [10]. Among the countries of North Africa, it is likely that Morocco will face the strongest effects of climate change [11]. There are two major climatic zones in Morocco the Northern regions (north of the High Atlas) with temperate and rainy climate and the Southern regions (south of the High Atlas), which have a semi-arid to desert climate with irregular rainfall [12]. Furthermore, climate variability has profoundly impacted a wide range of macroecological processes [13]. Decreases in precipitation, increasing aridity and higher temperatures, coupled with pressures of population growth and rapid urbanization is increasing Morocco’s vulnerability [14]. Indeed, the worst in 30 years, reduced cereal yields by 70 % and projections suggest will slow economic growth [15]. in part contributing to a deceleration in economic growth of 1.7 %[12].

Deforestation, rising temperatures, drought, fire and other ecological disturbances are reducing forest [16]. The manifestations of climate change, such as a decrease in annual precipitation and an increase in temperatures impacted forests [17]. Most of Morocco’s forests have become degraded  including Pinus halepensis[18]. Aleppo pine is found mainly in North Africa and Spain[19]. Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) is a widespread tree species whose natural range is limited to the Mediterranean basin[20]. In Morocco, it covers an area of65,000 hectares, spread over the Mediterraneanslope of the Rif, the central Middle Atlas, and some valleys of the High Atlas[21]. Because of its plasticity, it has been extensively used as a reforestation species to restore degraded areas[22].Correlation analysis revealed an increased negative relation with maximum temperature in April, June, and July, supporting the adverse effect of global warming on P. halepensis growth[23]. Tramblay et al. demonstrate that the climate change simulations indicate a decrease in extreme precipitation, -12% in average for the projection period 2070-2099 and a great variabilityprojection period 2020-2050 in Morocco [24], similar study took place in High Atlas of Morocco and revealed decreasing annual precipitationby 10–14% [25].

Several indices have been developed to assess and describe the climate and climate change; for example, bioclimatic levels [26], described by Emberger 1931 and vegetation levels, that describe the vegetation type according to climate features; these indices have been developed to spatially delineate bioclimatic zones and to explain the geographic distribution of vegetation through the combination of various climatic factors [27]. Along with TX90, TN90 and P10mm. Significant temperature increases lead to increased evapotranspiration, which may negatively affect vegetation growth, while the change of precipitation distribution pattern may lead to different degrees of vegetation degradation or increase in different areas[28][30], in addition, Many of the studies into the response of plant life to climate change seem to suggest that most plants will be more stressed[31]. Techniques of vegetation mapping and assessment are various, among them the supervised classification. Supervised classification is the process of assigning a class value to a set of grid cells[32].This technique involves using training data to classify different classes in the raster image.

Our objectives are;firstly, assess the Aleppo pine dieback in the High Atlas Geopark Mgoun reserve, secondly evaluate the main drivers of the pine degradation.

The study took place inside the Geopark M’goun in Azilal province, situated in central Morocco and in the Central High Atlas. The area of the Geopark, illustrated in Figure 1 and recognized by UNESCO in 2014, is 5700 km2. The area present a highly biodiverse geological substrate, accounting for limestone, clays, dolomites, marls, volcanic rocks, detrital formations and others [33]. Furthermore the region receive precipitations between 500 and 700m in average [34], presenting a Mediterranean like climate featured by rainy winter and dry summer [33] [35].

The Aleppo pine in the geopark M’goun are largely affected by the wood production during the Frensh colonization and after independence, as a result the Moroccan authority have announced this region asReserve, concurrently the area has classified as SIBE (Area of biological and ecological significance) of Tamga, and ZIP Tamga (Area of importance for plants of Tamga). The Tamga region contains 366 (or 436, considering the taxa from Belghazi’s work) species distributed among 62 (or 64) families, constituting 10% of Moroccan plant richness[36]. Belghazi in 2000 has proved that the Aleppo pine forest (Pinus halepensisMiller) in Tamga (Western High Atlas of Morocco), nestled in the valley of the Oued Ahansal, is characterized by remarkable production compared to the usual performance of this species [37]. However, during the last years an unprecedented massive dieback of pine trees is located in the area as revealed by images in figure 2.

• Climate change indices

Three indices have been selected to assessclimate change in the study area; TX90° for the days where the temperature is higher to 90^th percentile, TN90° wheretemperature is higher to 90^th percentile and days where precipitation are higher to 10 mm [38], [39].

• SPI

Monthly precipitation data from the Tilouguite station (1980–2019), located in the Aleppo pine forest and provided by the Hydraulic Basin Agency of Oum Er-Rbia 2022, were used to calculate the SPI. The resulting values were interpreted according to the standard SPI classification, allowing the identification of dry and wet periods, as well as their spatio-temporal variability, and enabling the assessment of their potential impacts on forest ecosystems.

• Emberger bioclimatic index

Among the bioclimatic indices traditionally used in North Africa and elsewhere in the Mediterranean [40], his index takes into account annual precipitation, the average maximum temperature of the warmest month (M in °C), and the average minimum temperature of the coldest month (m in °C). Afterward, temperatures are transformed into Kelvin by adding 273 [41] :

Q2 : Quotient bioclimatic indices

P : Annual precipitation (mm)

M : Maximum temperature of the warmest month (K)

m : Minimum temperature of the coldest month (K)

The Q2 facilitates the characterization of distinct bioclimatic zones, and the minimum temperature during the coldest month aids in defining climatic variations[40]. The selected bioclimatic zones include the Saharan zone, arid zone, semi-arid zone, sub-humid zone, humid zone, and per-humid zone [42].

Among the climatic indices commonly used to characterize aridity in Mediterranean and semi-arid regions, the De Martonne aridity index is widely applied due to its simplicity and effectiveness in integrating both precipitation and temperature [43][44]. This index is based on annual precipitation and mean annual temperature, allowing the evaluation of climatic dryness.

The De Martonne aridity index (I) is calculated as follows:

Where:

I: De Martonne aridity index

P: Annual precipitation (mm)

T: Mean annual temperature (°C)

The constant value (+10) is introduced to avoid negative or undefined values in regions with low temperatures.

This index enables the classification of climatic conditions into several categories, ranging from arid to humid environments. According to commonly used thresholds, the following classes can be distinguished:

I < 10: Arid climate

10 ≤ I < 20: Semi-arid climate

20 ≤ I < 30: Sub-humid climate

30 ≤ I < 60: Humid climate

I ≥ 60: Very humid climate

The De Martonne index is particularly useful for analyzing spatial and temporal variations in aridity and for assessing the impact of climate change on ecosystems and water availability. It has been widely used in studies focusing on Mediterranean environments and mountainous regions, where climatic variability plays a key role in ecosystem dynamics.

Firstly, the Aleppo pine forest in the area is delineated using Google Earth imagery, as Aleppo pines have specific visual characteristics compared to the surrounding forests of holm oak and Juniperus phoenicea. Then, supervised classification is employed to analyze Aleppo pine density over time. The Google Earth Engine is utilized for this supervised classification (SC), followed by an assessment of the Aleppo pine area for the study period. The area of Aleppo pine is estimated based on vegetation classes and bare soils. Evapotranspiration is considered as it reflects plant adaptability to climatic conditions, particularly their response to water and thermal stress. It’s important to note that the Tamga Aleppo pine forest is protected, with grazing restrictions and prohibitions on pine cutting, which are relatively controlled by local authorities, and the month of August was selected to avoid the effect of herbaceous plants, as these plants degenerate during the late summer and autumn seasons.

SC is based on using suitable algorithms to label the pixels in an image as representing particular ground cover types, or classes[45], some of these algorithms areSupport Vector Machine (SVM), Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM), Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest Classifier (RFC) [46]. During this study the Support Vector Machine (SVM) is utilized as it’ the most efficient [46][49]

The correlation coefficient is implemented to evaluate the Aleppo pine forest interaction with climate patterns to determine the factors that drive its evolution. Since the vegetation cover evolution is a complex set where large scale of scales the PCA is used to assess the multidimensional evolution of these forests. 

The climate data used in the current study, including (Tmin, Tmax, and precipitation), were downloaded from WorldClim (https://www.worldclim.org). SPI calculations were based on monthly precipitation data from the Tilouguite station (1980–2019), provided by the Hydraulic Basin Agency of Oum Er-Rbia,2022. ArcMap was used for data processing, while R software was applied for statistical analysis. These datasets cover climate information for all land surfaces and are interpolated using advanced methods. They have proven useful for various studies on climate change [50][51], Additionally, MODIS evapotranspiration data were obtained fromhttps://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod16a2v061/.

The days where the minimal and maximal temperatures pass the limit of 90^th quantile increase considerably for the study period, indeed, for the maximum temperatures, TX90 has increased respectively from 27.49 in 1984 to 46.11 in 2020 and from 28.8 to 45.5 for minimum temperatures TN90 (figures3 and 4).

.

• Temperatures variation

The average temperatures fluctuations, revealed by figure 5, vary in the study area between 12 during in 1992 and 15°C in 2005. The linear regression demonstrates the rise of Average temperatures by 1°C during the study period (figure 6). Furthermore,Tmin and Tmaxare progressively increasing during last decade (Figure 7).

.

• Precipitations

The precipitations oscillate in the study area between 168.67 mm during in 1981 and 903.35 in 1996. The linear regression demonstrates the rise decrease of precipitation by an average of 77.14 mm between 1960 and 2019, as shown by figure 8.

• SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)

The SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) graph for the Tilouguite station (1980–2019) shows strong interannual variability in rainfall, with alternating wet and dry periods. Several pronounced drought episodes are evident, particularly in the mid-1980s, the early and late 1990s, as well as between 2007–2010, and again in 2013 and 2016. In contrast, some years are characterized by very wet conditions, such as 1990, 2003–2004, and 2017 (Figure 9).

Overall, there is no clear linear trend, but there is an apparent increase in the frequency of dry episodes in recent decades.

For the Aleppo pine forests of the geopark, this rainfall variability leads to repeated water stress, which can affect growth, regeneration, and increase ecosystem vulnerability, despite the species’ adaptation to semi-arid conditions.

• Bioclimates variation

The maps figure 11 reveal that climate became more and more semi-arid. The most part of the geopark in the 60s decade are sub-humid, however the subsequent decades the semi-arid takes over as revealed by map C and D.

• De Martonne aridity index

The maps figure 12 highlights a progressive shift towards semi-arid conditions. While sub-humid climates dominated the geopark during the 1960s, semi-arid conditions gradually expanded in the following decades, becoming predominant in the most recent periods (maps C and D).

• Aleppo pine fluctuations

The Aleppo pine forests is largely devasted in the Tamga reserve, the supervised classification revealed that the pine forest have lost 22 Km², shrinking from 54,1 (2016) to 31 Km2 in 2022 (figure 13), the maps illustrated in figure 12 confirm these fluctuations. The SC accuracies are (table 1):

The correlation test indicates a substantial association between vegetation cover and increasing temperatures, particularly highlighted by the strong correlation observed between pine cover and both Tmin and Tmax as table 2.

The correlation test is generally confirmed by the CPA plot. Indeed, the majority of the variation is explained by PC1 (91.3%) and PC2 (8.1%). The cos 2 plot also confirms the representativeness of the test. Furthermore, vegetation cover and temperatures are strongly correlated with PC1, indicating a strong interaction between them, unlike precipitation (Figure 15).

1. Discussion:

The change indices revealed a profound climate change and variability in the study area. The days where the maximum temperatures exceed the 90^th quantile has considerably increased, showing an increase 21 day in 60 years 22 days in 60 years for TN90. Regards the P10mm index it’s generally variable, its variation during the study period reveals that the number of days where the precipitations rate exceeds 10mm decreased during last years.  In addition, the trend of temperatures tend to increase as the maximum temperatures rises and minimal temperatures and between 1991-2020 the average temperatures rhas risen by 1°C. in fact, the mean annual temperature for Morocco is 18.05°C, with average monthly temperatures ranging between 9.4°C and 26°C. Mean annual precipitation is 301.6 mm [14]. Youssef et al. have proved that the minimum and maximum temperatures have been risen by +1.7 and +1.4 respectively in the some villages in the study area 1984 and 2020[52][53]. Future climate trends in Morocco include rising temperatures of 1 to 1.5 C by 2050, as Morocco is experiencing an increase in temperature [54] and Morocco warmed by approximately 1.1 °C between 1984 and 2016 [55]. Generally the average global warming over the entire territory is about to change and estimated around 1 °C [54][57].

In the other hand, The regression of spatial precipitations distribution show significant decrease in the study area decrease by -77 mm, the precipitation in the area are characterized by its complexity, in the High Atlas of Moroccobetween 1984 and 2021 [52] [60]. In average precipitation reduced by 10 % and  20 % across the country, and 30 % decrease for the Saharan region by 2100 [12]. In addition, the average annual amount of precipitation reached a decrease of around 15% in the period 1971–2000 compared to the national precipitation levels of 1961–1990 [59]. Furthermore, the decrease represents approximately 25% of total rainfall in the rainy season in the northwest of the country [59] [61]. On the basis of 1961–1990 records, climate predictions point to a 4–6°C warming and a 20–60% reduction in rainfall towards the end of the century in Morocco [62].

In the context of climate change, the results of the De Martonne aridity index highlight a clear spatio-temporal pattern of increasing aridification. The analysis shows a gradual transition from a subhumid climate in the 1960s to predominantly semi-arid conditions in recent decades. Subhumid areas, initially extensive, have progressively declined, becoming limited and fragmented, mainly in high-altitude zones, while semi-arid conditions have expanded and now dominate almost the entire geopark. This evolution reflects the intensification of water deficit driven by the combined effect of decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures, consistent with trends observed in Mediterranean regions [43][44] [63].

These findings are reinforced by the Q2 bioclimatic index, which highlights a modification in the ecological functioning of the regional climate. The decrease in Q2 values confirms a shift toward more arid conditions, with high values being associated with humid climates and low values with arid climates [42][64]. Thus, while the De Martonne index illustrates the spatial redistribution of aridity, the Q2 pluviothermal quotient helps characterize the transition between bioclimatic stages.

This convergence between climatic indices confirms a robust trend toward the aridification of the Mediterranean climate in the studied region, consistent with regional observations in Morocco and North Africa [54] [58] [65]. Such an evolution is likely to have major impacts on ecosystem functioning, particularly on Aleppo pine forests, which are highly sensitive to water stress and variations in the water balance [66][69].

During droughts, low water availabilities induce stomatal closure to prevent transpiration, leading to reductions in evapotranspiration (ET), yet drought-associated meteorological lead to ET increase [70].The change in terrestrial ET during droughts is influenced by supply, energy, demand, and vegetation activities. However, significant uncertainties persist due to discrepancies among various ET products and simulations[71], lack or reduction of evapotranspiration indicates drought[72], the reduction of the ET during lasts years indicate the stress inside the High Atlas Aleppo pine forests. Indeed the behavior of ET under drought is complicated, The studies in US, Europe, and SE Asia  found that negative water deficit values were prevalent in arid and semiarid zones, while positive values were observed in subhumid and humid zones[73], which confirm the current study fundings as the region occurs in semi-arid region.

In the other hand, the temperature shows strong dependence on Aleppo pine area decrease (fluctuations), confirmed by the strong correlation between pine cover andTmin and Tmax, indeed, the images (figure 15) show that this degradation and continuous diminution of vegetation area is driven by mortality (dieback). Between 2015 and 2023 the pine forest in the Tamga reserve have lost 20 Km² due to the dieback. The same results are confirmed in High Atlas, as dry and hot years drive growth decline of Pinus halepensis at its southern range limit in the Moroccan High Atlas Mountains[23]. Temperature and rainfall may constrain growth during certain periods[74], The climate warming should thus produce significant effects on the short-term on forest productivity[75], Pinus halepensis shows sensitivity to drought, resulting in an increased response magnitude to pre-, during and post-drought conditions [76].In addition, radial growth of Aleppo pine was mainly controlled by soil water availability during the growing season, and differed by crown class[77]. It’s important to note that the performance of Aleppo pine forest has been strongly related to water balances and the disturbance regime in Mediterranean conditions[78] [79].Furthermore, the precipitations play small role in vegetation trend as the low correlation is proven between two parameters. The CPA test confirms this result as the vegetation trends are correlated with the rises in temperatures. Drought intensity reduced tree growth resistance but hardly affected its resilience[76].Pinus halepensis exhibited higher growth rate and drought tolerance, as well as higher resilience and resistance[80], yet the current study revealed that the Aleppo pin main mortality dieback are climate resulting stress.

The dieback and climate due degradation are not the only factors that threaten Aleppo pine in Morocco, indeed this plant is under danger of wildfires outbreak, as a result of the pine needles accumulation [19]. The Aleppo pine has undergone significant degradation due to anthropogenic overexploitation[81], the main anthropic pressure in Morocco are cutting of trees and overgrazing [52][82]. In addition, the Aleppo pine is not the only impacted plant as well, to Aleppo pine, Quercus suber, Q. ilex, and Q. pyrenaïca, Pinus pinaster, thuja (Callitris articulara) have gone profound changes in Oued Lahdar in the northern Morocco reducing their area form 94.3% in 1984 before deteriorating to 54.3%  in 2017 due to drought [83].

The region is considered a reserve for the protection of this plant and its inherent richness. Consequently, strict conservation measures must be intensified. However, climate-induced degradation is highly difficult to control and mitigate, as it is driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, policies should be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promote sustainable land use practices, and protect critical habitats from further anthropogenic stressors.

Morocco’s ecosystems are facing a critical situation, with continuous degradation of vegetation cover attributed largely to climate change and human activities. Factors such as grazing, expansion of agricultural lands, and deforestation for timber and charcoal have exacerbated this degradation, leading to a pronounced danger of deforestation in recent years. Current studies highlight the impact of Aleppo pine dieback on forest ecosystems in the Mediterranean climate of High Atlas, with climate patterns identified as a key driver. Despite protective measures in place and controlled human activities in the studied region the vegetation undergoes major threats due to rising temperatures and drought. However, the precise mechanisms by which climate influences these forests remain elusive. This study serves as both a warning of the severe mortality observed in the Moroccan High Atlas and a call to action for detailed investigations into the phenomenon. By uncovering the underlying causes and effects of dieback, we can better understand and address the degradation of Morocco’s precious ecosystems and the mediterranean climate as well.

Authors contribution

Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Outourakhte Aboubakre, Youssef Gharnit, MoujaneAbdelazize, Abdelali Boulliand Khalid El Haddany. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Outourakhte Aboubakre. Supervision and guidance: Abdelali Boulli and Aziz Hasib. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Acknowledgements

We extend our sincere gratitude to all those who assisted us during this research.

Funding

The authors declare that the study did not receive any specific grant.

Declaration of competing interest

We affirm that there is no conflict of interest associated with this publication. We declare that this manuscript is original, has not published before and is not currently being considered for publication elsewhere.

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